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Archive for 16 Ogos 2007

Pelaburan melalui Pinjaman ASB (ASB Loan)

16 Ogos 2007 162 comments

Ini satu topik yang agak menarik juga untuk dibincangkan, memandangkan sekarang ni bank-bank berlumba-lumba mempromosikan skim pinjaman ASB ni. Malah di Minggu Amanah Saham Malaysia (MASM) yang dianjurkan oleh PNB, mereka turut mempromosikan skim ini. Secara peribadi saya juga sering didekati oleh staf bank yang mempromosikan skim, tetapi saya telahpun nekad untuk tidak akan terpedaya dengan skim ini. Penulis jutawan Azizi Ali menulis satu artikel berkaitan topik ini yang boleh kita manfaatkan bersama-sama.

Berikut adalah teks Azizi Ali:
One of the most common question I get is this: is it a good idea to borrow money to invest in investment x (the x can be unit trusts, ASB, properties, business, Bank Rakyat shares, etc., etc.)?

Let me answer the question in real world terms.

Firstly, that is how folks build serious money – by using other people’s money. This strategy is a regular occurrence in business. Entrepreneurs borrow money from the bank to finance their expansion. They conquer the world, repay the loan and make tons of money. And that is always a good thing.

Now this concept of borrowing money to make more money works a treat for businesses as the margins are wide. The interest charged for the loan is often below 10 percent, but the
business reaps 30, 50 or even 100 percent return on their investment.

Further, because of the wide margins, even when the returns drop, the businesses still make loads of money.

Now you can see why this concept is made-to-order for businesses.

However, the same does not apply when it comes to investments such as shares or unit trusts. Often time, the margin or spread between the interest and return is slim -
less than 3% most of the time. For example, the interest charged is 9% but the return is only 12%.

Now if the situation remains like that – with the interest at 9% and return at 12% – things are still hunky dory. You would dowell taking the loan and making the investment. However, what usually happens is that the return starts to drop off. From 12%, they drop to 10% and then to 9%. (By the way, this is what happened to the fabulous ASB.)

The way things are going, the return could very well drop below the interest charged! And this is not an unusual thing. When that happens, instead of making money, the investor is now forking out money. And that, needless to say, is not a very nice thing to happen. Not exactly the stuff of fairy tales. (By the way again, this is what usually happens when folks borrow money to invest in stocks.)

Now after painting the real world scenario, let me answer the question. Yes, you should borrow money to invest – if the spread is wide (more than 5%) and you are pretty sure
that the situation will remain status quo for the loan period. For example, if the interest is 9%, the return should be at least 14%. Otherwise, let others be the test-pilot. You watch by the sidelines.

Now, I know a lot of people will jump and shake their heads. They will reminisce of how their father, grandfather, uncle, auntie or neighbour made tons of money by borrowing money to invest even when the spread was ultra-thin. Of course it can happen. People also strike the lottery but has it happened to you?

If the spread is thin, you are taking an unnecessary risk. While you can make a little bit of money, the chances of you losing a lot of money are significantly higher. Once the return starts to drop and/or the interest start to rise, you lose both money and sleep. And that is no way to make a fortune.

In case anyone thinks that this is a theory from the ivory tower, I personally will not borrow to invest if the spread is less than 5%. In fact, I will not borrow to invest in
unit trusts or shares – period. I only borrow money to expand my business and for property investment.

Ulasan saya secara ringkas:
Azizi Ali selalu ditanyakan persoalan adakah bagus meminjam wang untuk dilaburkan dalam pelaburan tidak kira unit amanah, ASB, hartanah, bisnes, saham Bank Rakyat, atau sebagainya.

Dia bersetuju, pinjaman adalah baik jika digunakan untuk mengembangkan perniagaan kerana julat untung adalah besar. Faedah yang dikenakan biasanya kurang daripada 10 peratus, sedangkan julat untung yang diperoleh oleh bisnes adalah 30, 50 malah 100 peratus. Oleh kerana julat agak besar, walaupun kadar pulangan menurun, bisnes masih dapat membuat duit.

Namun, perkara yang sama tidak berlaku untuk pelaburan seperti saham atau unit amanah. Selalunya, julat antara faedah dan pulangan adalah kecil iaitu kurang daripada 3%. Sebagai contoh kadar faedah 9% dan pulangan 12%. Jika kadar julat ini berkekalan, anda masih membuat duit. Tetapi selalunya pulangan akan menurun. Daripada 12%, turun ke 10%, dan kemudiannya 9%. (Dan ini yang terjadi kepada ASB). Malah, boleh juga terjadi kadar pulangan lebih rendah daripada kadar faedah, dan menyebabkan anda kehilangan duit bukannya membuat duit.

Seterusnya dia menyarankan anda boleh meminjam jika julat melebihi 5% dan anda dapat pastikan keadaan itu kekal. Jika julatnya kecil, anda telah mengambil risiko yang tidak perlu. Anda mungkin dapat membuat sedikit duit, tetapi peluang rugi adalah tinggi. Akhir sekali, Azizi Ali hanya meminjam wang untuk mengembangkan bisnes dan pelaburan hartanah.

 

Categories: ASB, Pelaburan, Unit Amanah
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