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Dr Doom: Ekonomi 2011

Apa kata Dr Doom untuk ekonomi pada 2011. Ikuti petikan bizstar berikut:

DR Doom is not always so gloomy at least not so lately. After all, he has said before that he is no perma-bear.

And he proves that with his latest forecasts that comes with a somewhat brightened outlook for next year.

Nouriel Roubini the famous economics professor from New York University who earned the nickname Dr Doom for his often-depressing outlook on the economy has got some glad tidings to dish out this time.

This is more than just because Christmas is around the corner; recent economic trends and data do seem to point to a more positive, albeit still risky, outlook for 2011.

To see how Roubini’s outlook has brightened within just a span of two months, consider his projection in October of a 40% chance of a double-dip recession for the US economy in 2011.

His latest diagnosis finds that the risk has since diminished substantially to around 15%-20% now, thanks to the new stimulus measures undertaken by US policymakers, including the much-debated second round of quantitative easing, or QE2.

Roubini has also upgraded his 2011 growth forecast for the world’s largest economy to 2.3% from less than 2% previously.

He is also certain that growth for the global economy next year will remain intact only that it will be marginally weaker compared with 2010. And in any case, risks to the global economy will come mainly from economies in the euro zone due to their mounting debt problems.

The bottom line is, this Dr Doom actually prefers the tag Dr Realist, because, as he points out, his projections have always been based on actual trends and data; he is not deliberately gloomy for the sake of eccentricity.

Roubini’s analysis of the global economic landscape this time is somewhat in line with the general consensus.

According to recent predictions made by some of the world’s leading financial institutions, such as UBS, Nomura, Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, global growth next year would likely range between 3.7% and 4.3%, down from the predicted average growth rate of 4.8% for 2010.

The two-track recovery will continue in 2011, with emerging economies leading the way with a growth rate of at least 6%, compared with the projected average growth rate of a mere 2% for advanced economies.

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