Arkib

Archive for Jun 2012

Dilindungi: BSB Timer

30 Jun 2012 Masukkan kata laluan anda untuk melihat komen.

Kandungan ini dilindungi kata laluan. Untuk melihatnya sila masukkan kata laluan di bawah.

Advertisements

BSB Timer

Transaksi terkini, admin melakukan full switching dari dana bond As-Saad ke dana ekuiti Al-Fauzan pada 28 Jun 2012. Target KLCI 1610, ambil kesempatan mini rally kerana ada listing baru iaitu kaunter FGV yg merupakan IPO kedua terbesar tahun ini selepas facebook.

Apa kata Jim Rogers?

Ikuti petikan komen Jim Rogers tentang suasana ekonomi global semasa, dan tindakan Feds mengendalikan ekonomi terutamanya US.

In a widely anticipated move, the FOMC announced yesterday that it will extend its “Operation Twist” program through the end of 2012. Launched last fall and previously scheduled to end at the end of this month, Twist is intended to stimulate the economy by lowering long term interest rates. The Fed plans to spend $267 billion on the extension bringing to the total spent shuffling debt maturities to 2/3 of a trillion dollars.

International Investor Jim Rogers thinks the Fed decision is tantamount to an extension of futility. “[It’s] more bad news as far as I’m concerned,” says the reliably outspoken legend. Rogers isn’t even buying the idea that the Fed is limiting itself to Operation Twist, suggesting that the Fed’s balance sheet continues to expand despite claims that Twist is cost neutral. “Somebody’s creating money somewhere and the only one who can do that is the Federal Reserve.”

The issue is less that Fed policy is insane than it is misguided. The Fed acknowledged yesterday that the economy is getting worse in terms of spending and employment. The official growth estimate for 2013 has been cut by 0.5% since April, standing at 1.9 – 2.4%. Keynesian economists advocate the Fed going “all in” on stimulus. Those of the Austrian School see the failure of current programs as an argument for the Fed more or less ceasing operations. What the Fed is doing by splitting the difference is akin to choosing to throw with your mouth so as not to offend either your right or left hand.

The Fed has kept short-term interest rates near zero since 2008 and intends to keep rates there at least through 2014. In addition the Fed has purchased around $2.5 trillion worth of Treasuries and mortgage securities. If there were a kitchen sink, the Fed would have tossed it at a bank in hopes it would lend it to a homebuilder.

A free marketeer to the bone, Rogers is horrified by the inflationary implications of endlessly debasing our currency. Whether or not inflation exists it’s impossible to dispute the root of Rogers’ main beef. “None of this has worked… for four years all of the policies that they’ve been trying have failed. Why would somebody try to do the same old thing when the policy keeps failing?”

Until Bernanke or a new Administration has an answer to that question, the economic recovery will satisfy no one. In the meantime, Rogers says own real assets.

Kategori:Pelaburan, Saham

Dilindungi: BSB Timer

22 Jun 2012 Masukkan kata laluan anda untuk melihat komen.

Kandungan ini dilindungi kata laluan. Untuk melihatnya sila masukkan kata laluan di bawah.

Dilindungi: BSB Timer

19 Jun 2012 Masukkan kata laluan anda untuk melihat komen.

Kandungan ini dilindungi kata laluan. Untuk melihatnya sila masukkan kata laluan di bawah.

Aksi Pelabur Asing di Bursa Malaysia

Sejak awal bulan Jun, saya tidak banyak melakukan transaksi di pasaran saham. Lebih banyak membaca, tunggu dan lihat pergerakan saham, perkembangan ekonomi dan suasan politik global.

Aksi rancak Bursa Malaysia sejak akhir-akhir ini banyak dipengaruhi oleh pelabur asing atau lebih dikenali sebagai ‘hot money’. Minggu akan ada rally sedikit selepas pilihanraya Greek selesai, tapi aktiviti penjualan oleh pelabur asing amat mendebarkan. Apa tindakan anda? Apa yang pasti risiko untuk membeli ekuiti ketika ini adalah agak tinggi.

Petikan BizStar sangat menarik untuk diamati bagi memahami suasana pelaburan tempatan:

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia which had last month bucked the regional trend and recorded net foreign fund inflows for the eighth consecutive month may see some stocks succumb to selling pressure by foreigners in the months ahead, analysts said.

Credit Suisse in a note issued recently highlighted ten stocks which have high foreign shareholdings that are susceptible to a selldown should these hot money decide to eventually leave Malaysia. “Hot money” as it is termed, is also known as foreign purchases into any type of local financial security including equities and the money market.

“If macro concerns continue to plague regional markets, we highlight Malaysian stocks which are widely held by foreigners which could be vulnerable in a selldown,” Credit Suisse said.

The report highlighted that stocks with high foreign shareholdings are AirAsia Bhd, Genting Bhd, IJM Corp Bhd, Genting Malaysia Bhd, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, Gamuda Bhd, Alliance Financial Group Bhd, Public Bank Bhd, British American Tobacco (M) Bhd and Axiata Group Bhd.

It is also noteworthy that foreigners have continued to buy Malaysian stocks, bucking the regional trend for the month of May despite fears of eventual outflows and political risks.

Kategori:Saham

Prestasi KLCI Mei 2012

4 Jun 2012 3 comments

Bulan Mei menyaksikan kadar volatiliti KLCI yang agak tinggi. Pada pertengahan bulan KLCI jatuh sehingga -2.4%, tetapi kembali pulih pada penghujung bulan, dan ia menyaksikan KLCI naik sebanyak 0.67%. Untuk tempoh yang sama dana Syariah Index pula naik sebanyak 0.87% (masih lebih baik berbanding KWSP sekitar 0.5%). Prestasi ini sebenarmya antara yang terbaik di dunia bagi bulan Mei (mungkin juga yang terbaik), memandangkan pasaran saham yang lain jatuh teruk untuk tempoh yang sama. Saya terpaksa mengakui, pergerakan KLCI untuk bulan Mei 2012 terlalu sukar untuk diramal, tapi masih bernasib baik kerana dana BSB Timer masih mampu memperolehi pulangan yang baik iaitu 0.62%.

Tapi carta yang lebih penting adalah pergerakan SP500 yang merupakan indeks utama pasaran US.

Indeks SP500 berada pada paras yang sangat kritikal, dan pada Jumaat lepas ia telah melepasi paras 200MA. Probabiliti yang tinggi adalah ia akan terus menjunam. Ada yang berpendapat, apa yang berlaku di US dan Eropah tidak memberi kesan yang besar kepada ekonomi Malaysia. Buat masa ini, saya agak bearish, KLCI tidak akan mampu bertahan lama, ia juga pasti akan turut menerima tekanan jualan besar-besaran minggu ini. Walaupun faktor politik tanahair cuba menstabilkan Bursa Malaysia, tetapi tekanan ekonomi global terlalu berat untuk dana-dana tempatan cuba support KLCI. Saya agak yakin, KLCI akan lebih kukuh pada paras 1500. Jadi berhati-hatilah dalam keputusan pelaburan anda. Sama-sama kita tunggu.

Kategori:Saham, Unit Amanah