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Archive for Julai 2013

Ramalan untuk KLCI Hujung Julai

26 Julai 2013 Tinggalkan komen

klci_25july2013

KLCI nampaknya terus bergerak ke puncak sejak pilihanraya ke-13 berakhir, walaupun ada sedikit correction sebentar pada penghujung bulan Jun.Minggu ini ia mencatat rekod terbaru apabila mencecah paras 1810.

Berdasarkan graf di atas, saya menjangkakan KLCI akan jatuh mendadak pada minggu depan sekitar 15 – 20 mata, malah mungkin akan lebih teruk lagi. Sama-sama kita nantikan aksi KLCI sebelum menjelang lebaran. Buat masa ni, admin masih dalam mood tunggu dan lihat.

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Kategori:Saham

Tips dan Idea Melabur dalam Saham

7 Julai 2013 Tinggalkan komen

Melabur dalam saham adalah antara instrumen yang agak berisiko tinggi jika tidak ada pengetahuan. Saya ingin kongsikan beberapa maklumat yang mungkin berguna kepada para pelabur.

icapital.biz adalah pengurus dana yang mempunyai rekod cemerlang dalam pelaburan saham di KLCI. Antara dana yang diuruskan adalah dana ICAP yang setakat ini telah bernilai RM2.96 berbanding nilai asal RM1.00 sejak dilancarkan pada 19 Oktober 2005.

icap_sep2012

Berdasarkan portfolio di atas, pegangan ICAP dalam PADINI dan PETDAG telah memberi pulangan yang paling lumayan. Untuk tempoh 7 tahun iaitu sejak Oktober 2005 sehingga September 2012, PADINI telah meningkat melebihi 600% dan PETDAG pula melebihi 400%.

Ketika ini KLCI agak berisiko:

klci_5july2013

Saya masih sabar menunggu untuk KLCI membuat correction ke paras 1400 – 1500, sebelum boleh masuk semula melabur dalam KLCI secara direct. Dan apabila ia berlaku, hanya 2 kaunter iaitu PADINI dan PETDAG yang saya akan berminat untuk melabur. Ini berdasarkan rekod kedua-dua kaunter ini yang cemerlang untuk tempoh 7 tahun yang lepas.Lagipun saya memang pernah membeli saham kedua-dua kaunter ini pada tahun 2007 dan kemudian menjual kesemuanya sekitar tahun 2011, dan pulangan yang diperolehi memang lumayan.

Buat masa ini, saya lebih tumpukan kepada pelaburan hartanah, dan akan terus menunggu sehingga KLCI berada paras yang lebih sesuai.

Kategori:Saham

The riskiest element in investing and property in the US

4 Julai 2013 Tinggalkan komen

Nak kongsi sedikit artikel yg ditulis oleh Azizi Ali tentang pelaburan hartanah khususnya di US.

 

The riskiest element in investing

I wrote about the advertisements in the media about investing in properties in the US in the July issue of Malaysian Business. In it, I shared seven points as to why all of us should be careful before doing so. While there is no doubt that property prices there are lower than two years ago, there are still a lot of risks for us to take the plunge. One of it is that prices still have some way to go before stabilising. In fact, many experts are predicting that prices will drop further from the current levels.

While the seven points that I mentioned in the article are already a lot, it turned out that there is at least one more point that we should consider. My good friend and fellow columnist of this magazine, Bill Wermine, sent me an e-mail about his thoughts on the matter. Being an American himself, Bill knows a lot more about the country than most of us. It turns out that even he himself would be wary of investing in the US because of all the seven points that I mentioned, plus an additional point.

Let me share Bill’s e-mail with you:

“Dear Azizi,

I read your article about the pitfalls in investing in US property. It was an excellent article.

There is another downfall which in my opinion is crucial and most Malaysians are ignorant – property taxes.

All over America local and state governments are facing budget shortfalls.  A way they are raising money is to go after property owners by raising property taxes and fees related to property.

As a house is visible, it is impossible to hide from tax authorities – unlike gold. If you do not pay the property tax, in some states the government can seize the house. Each of the 50 states has different tax laws, and property is taxed by the state unlike federal taxes where taxes rates are uniform. Property taxes are much higher than Malaysia. Your home would incur a tax of at least USD50,000 a year if in New York, New Jersey or Massachusetts. I am sure you only pay a fraction of this.

I’m paying a property tax of only RM600 per year (quit rent plus assessment) for my house (about 2,200 square feet) in Ampang Jaya. A comparable house in an area close to a city in Maryland would be at least USD800 per month.

The 50 different state property tax laws are a minefield of confusion and penalties.  Before buying a US property a buyer would need to consult with a property tax lawyer – and these fellows are not cheap.

Any Malaysian investor buying a property in America is a sheep waiting to be slaughtered by the tax collector vultures who wait for their prey.

Even me as an American would never venture in a US property unless I lived there and needed a roof over my head. Were you aware of the tax situation regarding property in the US?”

My answer to Bill is that I wasn’t aware of the high property taxes myself.

Now this only adds to the already long list of complications that awaits anyone who wants to invest there. I’m willing to bet that there are even more points that will only make things worse.

This is why I always caution my coaching clients, readers and seminar attendees to be very careful before investing overseas. While the investment itself may look lucrative and profitable, often time, there are hidden dangers and traps that lie unseen. The high property taxes in the US is just one example. We in Malaysia do not even consider property taxes when buying properties. So we assume that the same thing applies in other countries. But this assumption is dangerous and often costly. Many things that are normal here are not applicable elsewhere. Many fees that are low here are nose-bleedingly high in other countries. Often time, traps like these have led investors to lose a lot of money.

The riskiest element is the investor himself

This brings me to the main point of this article – the riskiest element in investing is not the investment. Actually, the riskiest element is the investor himself. <

I have seen, and I’m sure you have as well, people losing money from the safest of investments. At the same time, I’ve seen people making money from the riskiest of investments. While there are many reasons for this, a common thread why people lose money in ‘safe’ investments is because they know very little about the investment. Often time, they know nothing about it all. They made the investment because someone they know made the same investment. Or they were talked into it by a salesman. And usually such blind-faith investing does not end well.

Now while an investment can be safe, it does not mean you do not have to learn about it at all. Just because it is categorized as a ‘safe’ investment does not mean you will definitely make money investing in them; that all you have to do is to deposit money and then the investment will do the rest and dish out the returns tomorrow.

Actually, if you know very little about it, even a safe investment will turn out to be a risky proposition for you. If you do not know how the investment makes money, who the managers of the fund are, their fees, the track record and the future prospect of the investment, how can you expect to make money from it consistently? Wouldn’t it be like expecting to track across Taman Negara without any equipment, guides, training or even knowledge on jungle survival? In all likelihood, you will be lucky to come out from the jungle alive!

However, if you took a course in jungle survival, you would have increased your chances significantly. If you brought all the relevant equipments – compass, Sat Nav, food, water, parang – you would increase your chances further. And if you brought along two Orang Asli guides with you, I believe that you would appear on the other side of the jungle not only in one piece but ready to write a book about your experience!

Educate yourself on money matters

Likewise, your chances of making money from an investment would have increased significantly by educating yourself about it. You can do this easily by reading a few books on the subject matter, attending seminars on it, observing others and learning from the true experts. While this is no guarantee of success, it is clear that your batting average would rise with the knowledge.

One example of a risky investment is property auctions. If you don’t know what you are doing, you can get seriously burnt. So it is a risky proposition for most people. However, if you know what to do and what not to do, there are plenty of opportunities for you here!

Kategori:Hartanah

Malaysian stock market correction expected

4 Julai 2013 Tinggalkan komen

Tips ini sangat penting untuk pelabur yang terlibat terutamanya dengan saham dan unit trust.

KUALA LUMPUR: The benchmark FBM KLCI may be due for a correction this quarter as valuations were not sustainable although the downside should be well-supported by strong liquidity in the banking system.

Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd research head Chan Ken Yew said the index was trading at a mere 3.5% discount to its consensus target of 1,840.

KLCI-3-Jul

However, when the market does correct, he believes that the excess liquidity in the banking system, standing at RM317.9bil, will be able to cushion the selldown.

He said based on May numbers, the foreign fund outflow at RM4.2bil compared with RM18.8bil in total foreign net buying was “still very manageable.”

To add to that, the third quarter was typically a weaker season for the market as shown by past records and in the past five years, he said, adding: “We have seen corrections typically around August and September.”

That said, the research house added that it foresaw decent upside in the next twelve months.

Kenanga set its KLCI 12-month target at 1,870 and year-end target at 1,810.

“The upside is there and we see a correction as an opportunity to buy into weakness,” Chan said.

He added that timing was important and when the market hit 1,720, a 6% discount to market price, it would be a good time.

“We advise investors to sell when the composite index trades at more than 1,810 but we prefer they buy on weakness than sell on strength.”

Among the sectors Kenanga favours for the third quarter are building materials and construction as well as oil and gas.

Chan is cautious about property stocks, preferring developers that do not offer developer interest bearing scheme due to potential administrative measures in that respect.

“We also keep our mind open for the plantation sector as we suspect the crude palm oil prices could have bottomed out or still bottoming,” he said. “We will wait for strong signs of turnaround before we go aggressive on the sector.”

While the weakening of the ringgit against the US dollar should benefit export-oriented glove stocks, a stronger dollar also meant bleak days for airline operators as their interest expenses could hike up.

Chan’s other recommendation is to be selective on high-yielding stocks, with the exception of telco counters, during the quarter.

“We believe the consumer sector, especially the retail sub-segment, could be affected by the long-anticipated cut in subsidies and goods and services tax implementation.

Coupled with higher bond yield, he reckoned valuations of high-yielding stocks could be under pressure, like Malaysian real estate investment trusts.

Chan believed that the telco sector could be a dark horse, being a laggard-play.

“Although they still give good dividends, at least they are laggard as on a year-to-date basis, telco stocks are underperforming the KLCI by 8.7%.”

For more aggressive investors, Chan noted that they could consider stocks sold down by the recent foreign outflow.

A look at Kenanga’s top stock picks listed AirAsia Bhd, Asia Brands Bhd, Crest Builder Holdings Bhd, DiGi.com Bhd, Gamuda Bhd, IJM Plantations Bhd, Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, Magnum Bhd, Muhibbah Engineering Bhd, SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd and Tenaga Nasional Bhd.

Kategori:Saham, Unit Amanah

Dividen Dana Ekuiti adalah Gimik

3 Julai 2013 1 komen

Masih ramai pelabur yang masih keliru dengan pengumuman dividen yang biasa diumumkan oleh institusi yang mengurus dana unit trust. Istilah yang digunakan bukan dividen tetapi agihan atau distribution, kerana istilah dividen mempunyai maksud yang berlainan. Dividen lebih tepat untuk pulangan yang diumumkan oleh ASB dan ASW2020 yang memberikan pulangan dalam bentuk tunai.

Agihan yang diumumkan untuk dana-dana ekuiti pula lebih bersifat gimik dan tidak memberikan sebarang nilai tambah terhadap pelaburan anda. MAAKL baru saja mengumumkan agihan untuk 4 dana ekuiti untuk tempoh berakhir 30 Jun 2013 dengan peratusan seperti berikut:

agihan_maakl_jun2013

Dan ini pula harga harian dana MAAKL pada 1 Julai 2013:

maakl_price_1july2013

Perhatikan kesemua dana yang terlibat mengalami penurunan harga dengan peratusan yang hampir sama dengan agihan. Dalam kes di atas kadar peratusan agihan lebih tinggi sedikit berbanding kadar penurunan peratusan harga kerana kebetulan bursa saham mengalami sedikit kenaikan pada tarikh 1 Julai 2013. Mekanisme sebenar pengiraan agihan ini sebenarnya ada dinyatakan dalam prospektus untuk rujukan para pelabur.

Jadi, jika ada sebarang pengumuman agihan untuk dana-dana ekuiti selepas ini, anggap sahaja ia sebagai penyeri sahaja. Amat berlainan dengan dana-dana yang berharga tetap seperti ASB dan ASW2020.

Kategori:Unit Amanah

Prestasi Dana MAAKL Syariah Index Tempoh 18 Bulan 21.67%

2 Julai 2013 Tinggalkan komen

Dana MAAKL Syariah Index memberikan pulangan yang agak cemerlang untuk tempoh 18 bulan iaitu 1 Jan 2012 sehingga 30 Jun 2013. KLCI pula memberikan pulangan sebanyak 17.18%.

syidx_2012_jun2013

Kategori:Unit Amanah